Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
